Hey There, Colleagues,
We are about to dig into the world of forecasting. I love it, but it is a challenge. Here is some thinking from me.
Pick an organization (matters not service, manufacturing, or retail) and then look at their mission and vision statements. What are they about? Now, see if there is any reflection on how they forecast for their future. Ought to find a one-year, three-year, and five-year forecast. If not, go looking for another. If you pick a big company, it may be easier. Do a good analysis of what they do and speak to their accuracy.
Again, 250-word post, three to five sources, and two substantial response posts.
Role of Forecasting
Select a service organization (e.g., restaurant), manufacturing organization (e.g., Ford), or retailer (e.g., Home Depot). Explain their mission, vision, and overall strategy. Then discuss the role of forecasting in that organization. Explain what they may be forecasting, what methods are most suitable for them, how they should measure accuracy of forecast, and the role the forecasting contributes to customer satisfaction.
Be sure to post an initial, about 250-word substantive response by Thursday at 11:59 p.m. MT, and respond to two or more peers with substantive responses by Sunday at 11:59 p.m. MT. A substantive initial post responds to the topics presented completely and/or asks a thoughtful question pertaining to the topic. Two substantive peer responses, of 100 words minimum each, ask a thoughtful question pertaining to the topic and/or answers a question (in detail) posted by another student or the instructor.
Please support your discussion by three to five recent (within last
five years) references. At least three of them should be scholarly
(excluding our textbook). Cite in accordance with the CSU-Global Guide to Writing and APA
- Chapter 4 in Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management
- Drugova, T., Pozo, V., & Curtis, K. (2018). Forecasting organic wheat prices: Do conventional prices play a role?. Journal of Food Distribution Research, 49(1), 48-55.
- Goodwin, P. (2018). How to respond to a forecasting sceptic. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, (48), 13-16.
- Bührig, P., & Wohlrabe, K. (2016). Forecasting revisions of German industrial production. Applied Economics Letters, 23(15), 1062-1064. doi:10.1080/13504851.2015.1133890
- Pavelková, D., Homolka, L., Vychytilová, J., Ngo, V. M., Bach, L. T., & Dehning, B. (2018). Passenger car sales projections: Measuring the accuracy of a sales forecasting model 1. Ekonomicky Casopis, 66(3), 227-249.
- Proaño, C. R. (2017). Detecting and predicting economic accelerations, recessions, and normal growth periods in real-time. Journal of Forecasting, 36(1), 26-42. doi:10.1002/for.2412
- Chiroma, H., Zavareh, A. A., Baba, M. S., Abubakar, A. I., Ya’u Gital, A., & Zambuk, F. U. (2015). Intelligent decision support systems for oil price forecasting. International Journal of Information Science & Management, 47-59. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Haruna_Chiroma/publication/279517640_Intelligent_Decision_Support_Systems_for_Oil_Price_Forecasting/links/5594968508ae793d13798fe7/Intelligent-Decision-Support-Systems-for-Oil-Price-Forecasting.pdf